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Gambler's fallacy[ edit ] The gambler's fallacy is a particular misapplication of the law of averages in which the gambler believes that a particular outcome is more likely because it has not happened recently, or conversely that because a particular outcome has recently occurred, it will be less likely in the immediate future. An onlooker might apply the law of averages to conclude that on its next spin it must or at least is much more likely to land on black. Of course, the wheel has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results. So even if the wheel has landed on red in ten or a hundred consecutive spins, the probability that the next spin will be black is still no more than Similarly, there is no statistical basis for the belief that lottery numbers which haven't appeared recently are due to appear soon. There is some value in choosing lottery numbers that are, in general, less popular than others — not because they are any more or less likely to come up, but because the largest prizes are usually shared among all of the people who chose the winning numbers.
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